Tested against real collapses
We applied Fulcrums to companies that made headlines. Not after the fact.
Each case study below was scored using the production Fulcrums distress model on the historical Companies House record. No insider information. No hindsight. Each company is independently verifiable by Companies House number.
- Validated cases
- 18
- All UK, public Companies House data
- Median lead time
- 24 mo
- Between HIGH band crossing and failure
- Flagged 12+ months early
- 94%
- 17 of 18 cases
- Combined turnover
- £1.4B
- At last filed accounts
Distribution
Months between HIGH band crossing and failure.
Each row is one case. Hover or tap to see the company.
Bars rendered at solid pink represent the true model-driven lead time. Bars at faded pink hit the runner's 24-month lookback ceiling, so the true lead time may be longer.
All 18 case studies
Typhoo Tea Limited
Fulcrums elevated Typhoo into High Risk 40 months before liquidation. 6 signals on the public Companies House record
Read the case studyTuffnells Parcels Express Limited
Fulcrums elevated Tuffnells into High Risk 35 months before liquidation. 6 signals on the public Companies House record
Read the case studyLeon Restaurants Limited
Fulcrums elevated Leon into High Risk 25 months before liquidation. 6 signals on the public Companies House record
Read the case studyWildgoose Construction Limited
Fulcrums elevated Wildgoose into High Risk 24 months before liquidation. 4 signals on the public Companies House record
Read the case studyLawton Yarns Limited
Fulcrums elevated Lawton into High Risk 24 months before administration. 3 signals on the public Companies House record
Read the case studyUpdata Infrastructure (UK) Limited
Fulcrums elevated Updata into High Risk 24 months before liquidation. 3 signals on the public Companies House record
Read the case studyExchequer Solutions Limited
Fulcrums elevated Exchequer into High Risk 24 months before administration. 4 signals on the public Companies House record
Read the case studyCelsus Group Limited
Fulcrums elevated Celsus into High Risk 24 months before administration. 4 signals on the public Companies House record
Read the case studyInternational Decorative Surfaces Limited
Fulcrums elevated International into High Risk 24 months before administration. 6 signals on the public Companies House record
Read the case studyCC Stim UK Topco Ltd
Fulcrums elevated CC into High Risk 24 months before administration. 5 signals on the public Companies House record
Read the case studyScent Global Ltd
Fulcrums elevated Scent into High Risk 19 months before administration. 2 signals on the public Companies House record
Read the case studyMorris Care Limited
Fulcrums elevated Morris into High Risk 17 months before liquidation. 7 signals on the public Companies House record
Read the case studyProper Music Group Ltd
Fulcrums elevated Proper into High Risk 17 months before liquidation. 2 signals on the public Companies House record
Read the case studyArthur M. Griffiths & Son Limited
Fulcrums elevated Arthur into High Risk 16 months before administration. 5 signals on the public Companies House record
Read the case studyInternational Freight Consultancy Limited
Fulcrums elevated International into High Risk 14 months before liquidation. 4 signals on the public Companies House record
Read the case studyTroy (UK) Limited
Fulcrums elevated Troy into High Risk 13 months before administration. 6 signals on the public Companies House record
Read the case studyAtlas Commodities Ltd
Fulcrums elevated Atlas into High Risk 13 months before administration. 4 signals on the public Companies House record
Read the case studyVenthum Limited
Fulcrums elevated Venthum into High Risk 8 months before liquidation. 3 signals on the public Companies House record
Read the case studyMethodology
No hindsight. No leakage. Same model.
Each case study uses the production Fulcrums distress model applied only to data that was available at each point in time. Director appointments, charges and accounts are filtered to the filings already on Companies House at the snapshot date.
The runner walks forwards through the historical record in monthly snapshots. The first time the model crosses the production HIGH band threshold (distress score > 0.08) is the lead time we report. There is no adjustment, retraining or feature selection on the case-study set.
Selection criteria, applied at the database level: failure on or after January 2022, HIGH band crossing at least 90 days before failure, at least one filed iXBRL accounts set, and turnover ≥ £5M. Cases reporting a 24-month lead time hit the runner's lookback ceiling; true lead times for those companies may be longer.
All companies, dates, and Companies House numbers are independently verifiable.